Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 18.983570 22.087142 25.484587 29.472546 34.017862 39.029275 44.965117
2024-10-13 14.461929 18.858703 24.172937 31.032190 39.610308 49.939496 63.270363
2024-10-20 10.958935 15.674331 21.844651 30.427716 41.961225 56.812953 77.254843
2024-10-27 8.361746 12.958249 19.397900 28.942299 42.561351 61.096405 87.982007
2024-11-03 7.449021 12.333283 19.569158 30.858284 47.758975 71.788907 108.106961
2024-11-10 6.874036 12.066906 20.146679 33.327556 53.893024 84.246112 131.745196
2024-11-17 5.951185 11.066943 19.418303 33.645017 56.742439 92.068837 149.203734
2024-11-24 5.056715 9.945883 18.306349 33.151533 58.180296 97.767531 163.801060
2024-12-01 4.244049 8.819344 17.004865 32.133559 58.580055 101.767362 175.940075
2024-12-08 3.704603 8.100629 16.299596 32.017897 60.411069 108.129988 192.255674
2024-12-15 3.291413 7.553562 15.821085 32.223357 62.769502 115.489526 210.692408
2024-12-22 2.731671 6.607574 14.451959 30.598028 61.660813 116.803966 218.937958
2024-12-29 2.495799 6.340586 14.434337 31.667356 65.821174 128.022763 245.899098
2025-01-05 2.323965 6.194262 14.659516 33.282528 71.258437 142.129794 279.389127
2025-01-12 1.985603 5.591057 13.827620 32.628578 72.212280 148.121290 298.727447
2025-01-19 1.635441 4.880245 12.639235 31.043975 71.095307 150.078588 310.698346
2025-01-26 1.569554 4.886799 13.086755 33.084793 77.647445 167.298121 352.835018
2025-02-02 1.539668 4.984385 13.761662 35.714264 85.692168 188.059231 403.271343
2025-02-09 1.385421 4.701476 13.464602 36.052228 88.802837 199.170100 435.544793
2025-02-16 1.209244 4.314252 12.841523 35.526832 89.931744 206.298293 460.344742
2025-02-23 1.033728 3.885968 12.038019 34.442889 89.657219 210.439147 479.305463
2025-03-02 0.919239 3.623979 11.638593 34.319719 91.590090 219.398042 508.849879
2025-03-09 0.830381 3.425848 11.384715 34.538515 94.351407 230.349100 543.331090